MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Since this plan was announced, we've been seeking a variety of perspectives about whether it could succeed from people with experience dealing with these issues. We have another this morning from Oliver McTernan. He is an experienced mediator and co-founder of the U.K.-based nonprofit Forward Thinking. It focuses on resolving conflict through dialogue in the Middle East and other places around the world, and he's with us now. Mr. McTernan, good morning. Thank you for joining us.
OLIVER MCTERNAN: Good morning, Michel.
MARTIN: Well, what do you see as the biggest stumbling blocks in Trump's plan?
MCTERNAN: Well, I think pressure and the fact that these negotiations are being carried out in public, under the spotlight, as it were. I don't think that helps to reach the level of consensus necessary to move forward. For the plan itself, I think it's - the 20 points are unrealistic. To me, they reflect the - what happened in 2003. You know, after the fall of Saddam in Iraq, we had the plan which Paul Bremer introduced, and there's great similarities. And we know the consequences of that. Thomas Ricks' book "Fiasco," I think, gives us a good warning of the risk if the plan goes ahead as outlaid in the 20 points.
MARTIN: Isn't the main thing that Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, wrote this roadmap for peace without - certainly not - without Hamas' input, but apparently without any Palestinian input. In your experience, can peace be achieved without contributions from all stakeholders?
MCTERNAN: In my experience, Michel, what produces a durable agreement and leads on to a sort of lasting peace is if you have an inclusive process - if all the main actors, all the people with real constituency are brought to the table and that you can find, as I say, sufficient consensus among them to move forward to the different stages that are required to get a proper political process leading to a durable peace. We've seen that work in Ireland. And I am, being around the Middle East for the last 20 years, intimately involved at the political level. And I'm sure, certain, that what worked in Ireland can - the method can also work effectively in the Middle East.
MARTIN: But one notices that Israel and Hamas have both been making gestures toward Trump. So what have you noticed about that?
MCTERNAN: Well, I think Trump is playing an important role. And for all sorts of reasons, I think people don't want to get on the wrong side of him, and that's good. I've been surprised that Netanyahu didn't take his instruction to stop the bombing on Saturday morning, because, as I understand, the bombing is still going on and the killing is still going on in Gaza, and that's not a good sign. But I hope it won't rob us of a glimmer of hope, as was mentioned, for the release of the hostages and the end of the ordeal for them and their families, but also the 2 million people in Gaza who, from the messages I'm getting from Gaza, are reaching their end. And I think that must put pressure on Hamas to find ways to move forward and to, first of all, achieve an immediate ceasefire and then a permanent ceasefire leading to proper negotiations.
MARTIN: Trump urged both sides to, quote, "move fast," and he said that the first phase of negotiations should be done by this week. Does that strike you as a realistic timeline?
MCTERNAN: No, and I think that sort of pressure in conflict situations is not helpful. I think the reason why Netanyahu has continued his campaign of bombing - it's for the same reason, to put military pressure on Hamas in the belief that that will force them to agree. Now, what the last two years has shown is actually, military pressure increases resistance. It doesn't make resistance go away. It actually increases it. And I think it's a wrong move that - now people have come to the table, they should be given the time and the space to find the right way forward. It shouldn't be fitting into the timetable of any person or any international group. It's too important to get...
MARTIN: But...
MCTERNAN: ...The right deal now, and not just paper over the cracks...
MARTIN: But...
MCTERNAN: ...For the sake of news headlines.
MARTIN: But you've also noted, just as you just said, that the people in Gaza are really in a - in dire straits and that they are, as you put it, sort of nearing the end. What then - we only have about a minute left. I apologize for that. But what then would be productive in this moment, given how dire the situation is there?
MCTERNAN: Well, I think the first thing is release the hostages and find the bodies that are available. Make sure they're returned to the families, and then, for the people in Gaza, assure them this is a permanent ceasefire with guarantees. I think that's what people need.
MARTIN: That is Oliver McTernan. He's a conflict mediator and co-founder of the U.K.-based nonprofit Forward Thinking. Mr. McTernan, thank you so much for sharing these insights with us.
MCTERNAN: Thank you, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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