"If you put 10 economists in a room, you'll get 11 different opinions."
This now-cliched phrase pokes fun at the notion that economists often disagree in their interpretations. But it's still instructive to hear what they have to say.
Each fall, Greater Spokane convenes three economists to review current conditions and look ahead.
This week, Steve Scranton, chief economist from Washington Trust Bank, Professor Vange Ocasio Hochheimer from Whitworth University and Avista Crop chief economist Grant Forsyth took their turns in the prognosticating chair.
Hear their thoughts on questions such as the apparent disconnect about what people say about the economy and how they act when they buy things. What will happen if the government funding impass keeps going and going? Are we headed toward an artificial intelligence bubble?
Steve Scranton: The takeaways? Economic growth is bifurcated (the rich will do well, the poor will struggle). Fiscal stimulus, corporate spending and tax refunds (expected to be unusually high next year) are going to be a positive driver for growth next year, Interest rates? Follow what the Fed's doing because that's what short-term interest rates are going to do. Long-term interest rates are going to depend on inflation and economy."
Vange Ocasio Hochheimer: The one Big Beautiful Bill Act presents a significant restructuring of the U.S. fiscal priorities. It expands certain business tax incentives, aiming to stimulate investments. That's a positive thing. But, simultaneously, it makes deep cuts to federal social programs such as Medicaid, SNAP and education. For Washington, this means potential losses of several billions of dollars in federal funding, placing greater pressure on state and local governments to fill the gaps.
Grant Forsyth: The dominant source (of employment) for the region is health care. It's what's propping up growth now at zero employment growth. But the problem going forward is that this sector may be in for some tough changes that may curtail employment growth going forward. I'm a little pessimistic that we're going to see, regionally, a lot of employment growth in 2026, which means a tougher labor market for people coming into the labor force or for people who have lost their jobs for some reason, except for that health care sector. But there are risks there because of what's happening in terms of federal policy.
Hear the panelists' thoughts on questions such as the apparent disconnect about what people say about the economy and how they act when they buy things. What will happen if the government funding impasse continues for awhile? Are we headed toward an artificial intelligence bubble?
