SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Cuba has run out of oil. That is according to the country's government, which has been dealing with an energy blockade since January. That is because the U.S. had stopped shipments of Venezuelan oil to Cuba in an effort to force political changes on the Caribbean island. Cubans are now living with sustained blackouts and rely on wood and charcoal to cook and get light. So what happens now? Here to discuss is Jorge Pinon. He's an energy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin. He also served as president of Amoco Oil, Latin America. Welcome.
JORGE PINON: Thank you, Scott.
DETROW: So you spoke to us back in January right when this all began, right when the U.S. began this blockade. How would you characterize what has happened in Cuba since that conversation?
PINON: Well, the blackouts continue because about 40% of them out of service because of technical issues, and the rest now because of the lack of fuel. But it's not only now electric power that's lacking, but also, as you said, cooking fuel or diesel for tractors and diesel for trucks. So what used to be an issue or a challenge for the electric power sector, now is a big issue and challenge for the whole economy of the island.
DETROW: What are ways that you see this play out in everyday life right now?
PINON: There are people all over the island - for example, folks that we know that were going from Santiago to Havana and then got stuck in Havana, and they couldn't come back to Santiago, and they've been stuck there for weeks. There's no cooking fuel. Your refrigerators don't work, so your food will spoil. Now comes the summer months. Heat is about to come in. So your fans and all other equipment, electrical and otherwise, doesn't work either. So we're talking about an economy really that has shut down both electrically and, again, for fuel.
DETROW: I want to talk about the politics of this, and of course, President Trump has been pretty clear, saying out loud that he wants to see regime changes in Cuba. Last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba, and he had a message for the country, for its leaders, saying there's a path forward. Make political and economic reforms in exchange for support from the U.S. I want to talk about that, but first, I want to play back a clip that - something you told us in January that stuck with us.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR CONTENT)
PINON: That will create a political vacuum. The church is not going to come in and handle that or fill that vacuum. We think that the Cuban military will then fill that vacuum. And then the big question that we all have - are Mexican drug cartels then going to fill that vacuum?
DETROW: All of this was more hypothetical back in January. Here we are in May. What are you seeing in terms of power structures in Cuba?
PINON: Still very concerned about the vacuum - who's going to lead the country in whatever political or economic model we have? You know, Scott, one of the things is there is no Fidel anymore. There is no leadership. As I said earlier, the church doesn't have it, and the military probably is the only organization that can really, quote-unquote, "take over" the country. But it's going to be very, very difficult, again, because of the lack of leadership in - within a new economic and political model.
DETROW: I wanted to broaden this out at the end, given how much of an oil crunch there is around the world right now, whether it's jet fuel becoming in scarce supply in Europe or higher gasoline prices in the United States. I think a lot of people around the world are thinking about scenarios like this. Of course, Cuba is its own economy, but I'm wondering, even given that, is there anything the U.S. or other countries can learn from what is happening in Cuba right now - a society without oil?
PINON: Yes. Again, that every single source of energy, whether it's renewables, whether it's biomass, whether it's wind, are required and needed within a balanced energy matrix. It's a very complex issue, and it's not only Cuba. You have the Dominican Republic. You have Puerto Rico. You have Panama facing the same challenges - transitional and growing economies that need to balance their electric matrix. Again, reliable plus renewable and clean - that's what we all want.
DETROW: That is University of Texas at Austin energy researcher Jorge Pinon. Thank you so much for talking to us.
PINON: Thank you, Scott.
(SOUNDBITE OF RAPSODY SONG, "ASTEROIDS") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
