STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
On one level, Iran's government is a cult of personality. Visitors to Tehran notice giant billboards showing the glowering face of the Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. He's often shown beside Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his successor, who appeared benevolent and grandfatherly while ruling ruthlessly. Below that cult of personality is an intricate system that was intended to last and is being tested. Karim Sadjadpour is here to talk with us about that. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and American policy. And we rely on him. Karim, good morning.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: OK. So when we hear that 88 clerics will meet to pick a successor, it sounds to me a little like the conclave that chooses the pope. Is that right?
SADJADPOUR: You know, that body, the Assembly of Experts, is indeed 88 clerics. The joke about them is their average age is deceased...
INSKEEP: (Laugther).
SADJADPOUR: ...Because it's a very old group of individuals. And the big question is whether the Revolutionary Guards, who are the real power in Iran - 150,000 men - are going to defer to these old clerics about who is going to be their next commander in chief. I think, in reality, the Revolutionary Guards are going to be running the show here much more than the Assembly of Experts.
INSKEEP: I feel the need to explain this. There's a regular army in Iran and there's this whole second army, the Revolutionary Guards, which as their name implies is supposed to be there to enforce the strictures of the Islamic Republic. You're saying that instead of enforcing the orders, they might be giving the orders.
SADJADPOUR: Indeed. I think that the Revolutionary Guards have become the most powerful institution in Iran. They not only dominate the country's politics, but they dominate its military, its economy. And I think that the next supreme leader of Iran is not going to be the incredibly powerful figure that Ayatollah Khamenei came to be. And more likely, the determining factor in who rules Iran in the coming years are probably going to be internal battles within the Revolutionary Guards. And that's assuming the regime remains in place.
INSKEEP: Does that decrease the chance of the United States finding someone pliable or cooperative to run the country the way that they did in Venezuela?
SADJADPOUR: Not necessarily, in that there also are differences within the Revolutionary Guards. At the moment, the senior-most leadership are folks who are ideologues because they were hand-picked by Ayatollah Khamenei. But as many will tell you, the rank and file of the Revolutionary Guards has folks who I would not describe them as democrats, but some of them believe that Iran's economic interests or its security interests should be put before revolutionary ideology. But at the moment, those folks have yet to really emerge into powerful positions.
INSKEEP: Do they think Iran's economic interests should be at the forefront because they're so involved in making money in the Iranian economy?
SADJADPOUR: Well, that's definitely a part of it. As I said, these folks, I would not describe them as Jeffersonian democrats. But in many ways, like the transformation we saw in China after the death of Chairman Mao - when a new group of leaders, who are not democrats, said, listen, this system, this revolution can survive much more easily if we open up the economy, if we ease social restrictions. Again, I think that there are folks in the Iranian system who believe that. At the moment, I don't think they're in positions of power. That could change in the coming weeks and months perhaps.
INSKEEP: I think you wrote the other day that there are people who'd want peace and have no power to bring it, and there are people who could bring peace and they have no interest in it.
SADJADPOUR: That's indeed right. You know, for 47 years, there's been a strategic culture inside the Islamic Republic of resistance. And I think many realize that so long as the ethos of this government is death to America and death to Israel, rather than long live Iran, this country is never going to fulfill its enormous potential. So the question is whether this military action by the United States will eventually empower those kinds of folks, or will it force the regime simply to double down on ideology?
INSKEEP: We've just got a few seconds left. But there is an elected president who, before the war, was interested in better relations with the United States. Does he have any real influence?
SADJADPOUR: No. I think President Pezeshkian is virtually irrelevant here. And he's not going to be deciding Iran's future.
INSKEEP: OK. Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and has studied Iran for many years. He was an involuntary guest to their government once upon a time. Karim, thanks so much.
SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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